Welcome to the 18th Annual edition of University Generosity Bracketology! For the newly initiated, I promise this will be a very different and dare I say far more valuable NCAA analysis than you’re likely to get from your standard internet sports nerd. In fact, my annual NCAA March Madness picks have been highly coveted and waited upon with bated breath for nearly two decades (seriously, google College Pete’s University Generosity Bracketology). Ok, I kid (a little)… but it is refreshing to take an annual break from my more typical (read: wonky) college planning advice and lean into some of the Madness of the NCAA basketball tournament.
As background if you’re a new reader, many years ago I developed an index for each University based upon their historical financial aid and Institutional scholarship generosity (i.e., how much money they doled out to students in the form of large scholarships and grants). I regularly update and utilize that index in my practice… and about 18 years ago I used it to make my March Madness picks. I called my unique methodology University Generosity Bracketology – and it became a thing (at least amongst my readers and a few local sports commentators desperate for new content).
To my knowledge it was the first of its kind and while it may not result in a win for anyone’s office pool, it was and remains a strategy that guarantees you’ll get paid. And for what it’s worth, without addressing the tumultuous times specifically, my University Generosity index is an especially effective college planning tool for middle and upper middle class families during uncertain political climates, when markets tend to be volatile and the more traditional college funding options you may have been counting upon have become less dependable.
Why? Well the simplest illustration (which I’ll use here in the interest of time and space) is one I’ve used before. As you know from prior articles, there are two separate prices for every college. The first is the published one — and that is NOT the one that matters…it reflects the gross price (an inflated price that WILL be discounted). I’ve written a bunch of pieces on my blog that explain the true cost of college and what levers are used to discount and by how much (avg. 56%). The price that matters is the Net Price (the % of the gross price you’ll actually pay), which if you understand the Title IV rules of funding and financial aid — and how to bend those rules to your advantage — will result in a MUCH LOWER price than you may think…
For example, the cost of attendance at the University of Miami, back in my 2019-20 bracket was $70,585. Today UM is $97,774, an increase of 38.5% in just 6 years. If UM continues to increase at the same rate it will cost $135,436 per year in 2031-32 year. Something’s gotta give.
And it does for every school (it’s called the discount rate – which is on average 56%). Now UM is a generous school – with a history of awarding both Institutional Merit and Need-Based awards that significantly offset the gross price. Not a single one of my students pays gross at UM – not even my seven figure earners; they all pay a percent (sometimes a small fraction of that gross price). That’s how college funding works and has worked alongside college admissions for the past couple of decades.
All universities discount and the ‘generous ones’ award additional billions in grants and scholarship. It’s a system that both serves the universities (to entice students) and does help make college more affordable for millions of families who understand the system. That said, some universities (like UM) execute better financial aid programs than others. And that’s where University Generosity Bracketology was born… and why I’m telling you that Wofford College in Spartanburg, SC (one of the ‘Harvard’s of the South’) is a big winner! Wofford’s team is scrappy and they’re funding practices are generous – historically Wofford will meet 89% of a family’s demonstrated need, so I like them against Tennessee, which is more stingy both in terms of their team defense and their scholarship practices. Tennessee only meets 51% of demonstrated need.
Here are some other ‘hot’ university generosity takes:
1. Let’s start with a play-in game: American University and Mount St. Mary’s University (MD) will have little national interest, and to me is a ‘pick-em’ since the winner earns the right to take on perennial powerhouse and tournament favorite Duke (which incidentally meets 100% financial need and also boasts the National Player of the Year candidate in Cooper Flagg). While both AU and MSM have a decent financial aid and merit scholarship record, neither can compete with Duke, either with aid or on the hardwood.
3. #7 St. Mary’s vs. #10 Vanderbilt – Yes, there is another St. Mary’s in the tournament, but this one from California has become a regular guest to the annual Big Dance. St. Mary’s College of California may be the smallest Division 1 school with only about 2,800 students, but they have great basketball tradition. Still, Vanderbilt has one of the strongest financial aid records in the nation, every year, so I’m taking the Commodores in the upset.
4. #13 Yale vs. #4 Texas A&M – As the Ivy League representative, Yale’s endowment of over $40 billion is easily the largest among the 68-team field. They meet 100% of financial need (free to families who earn $200,000 AGI), so this is an easy pick for me. A&M can barely keep up at 68%. What is perhaps more exciting is the Bulldogs’ potential 2nd round matchup with Michigan. As a state university, UMich has a better-than-average track record by meeting 92% of demonstrated need.
5. #1 University of Florida vs. #16 Norfolk State – Call me an in-state homer, but I’m going with the Gators in this one. UF meets 98% of demonstrated need, a near perfect score and an exemplary mark for a state university (in the field, only UNC is better, and many are complaining that the Tar Heels don’t belong in this year’s Dance). With cost of attendance increasing across the nation, especially at private colleges, UF’s costs have remained almost unchanged in recent years. And with the Bright Futures scholarship covering tuition, most students admitted to UF enjoy at least 75% of tuition covered.
When it comes to March Madness, I know this entire bracket is a crap shoot. Upsets abound every year, and by Saturday afternoon many of us will feel completely foolish holding worthless brackets with Final Four teams already eliminated. So, you’re on your own if you want to make quick money with your Bracketology picks.
But if you have high school age children getting ready to apply to college, you will want to understand the message behind University Generosity Bracketology. When it comes to choosing colleges, you need to remember that not all schools treat financial aid and scholarship in the same way. Fact is, while ALL schools discount in some way, they don’t all do it in the same way, and for the same students. Some schools only offer need-based aid, while others also offer merit scholarship awards. As a parent, you want to make sure that there are schools on your list that are affordable, and you’ll want to know whether you are a legitimate candidate for need-based aid. Because that can make all the difference in terms of creating opportunities for your child.
You can download my completed 2025 University Generosity Bracket here.
If you have questions about how to pay for college; or you want guidance on how to build the right college list for your child; or you want assistance with the application for admission and essays, then either reply to this email or drop us a line. Don’t wait until it’s too late, or when your child is a senior in high school. The earlier you start planning, the more opportunities you’ll have to take advantage of the discounts. You want to get a jump start on this, ideally in the second semester of 10th or first semester of 11th grade (the year that will be considered in the funding formulas).
